The first and most heartening point is the remarkable declines in total fertility rates across all these states between and If we follow the standard convention of taking 2.
Demographic Dividend : Advantage India
Even Tamil Nadu and Kerala were at 2. By , fertility in half these states had dropped below the replacement rate and in another two Assam and Gujarat was very close. The remaining six states, which had fertility rates significantly above the replacement rate, are essentially successor states of the original pre BIMARU states of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh.
- Demographic dividend has challenges to overcome;
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While the other 10 states had fertility rates at or below the all-India average of 2. Second, more worrisome, half the increment in population of million expected in the 15 years between and will occur in these six poor, high fertility, landlocked states with weak infrastructure, education systems and, arguably, governance.
As in , the anxiety about translating this increment in population and labour supply into productive employment and growth remains strong.
While the country's young demographic base is beneficial for India's growth, harnessing its full potential is a major challenge, said Siddhartha Sanyal, chief India economist at Barclays. This huge young population is coming from areas where economic development is not of the highest level," Sanyal said.
It is crucial for the country to scale up the potential of its people entering the workforce by enhancing education and employability, he added. The male adult literacy rate stands at 75 percent, while female literacy is significantly lower at 51 percent, according to World Bank data.
This compares to levels above 90 percent for both male and female literacy in China. Mohit Hira, former chief marketing officer at NIIT, a talent development institute specializing in training for the IT sector, said, "A lot of kids face challenges getting hired because their communication skills aren't good enough.
Plus, India has to ensure that there are enough jobs to accommodate its growing working age population. But this is proving to be difficult, as India largely skipped the manufacturing phase of growth that has accompanied the economic development of countries such as China, and jumped straight into developing its services sector, said Gareth Leather, economist at Capital Economics, a global macroeconomics research firm.
India's demographic dividend is turning into a disaster
While the official unemployment rate in India stands at a low 3. The employment data only cover the so-called "official sector" such as public-sector jobs and large companies — a fraction of the entire job market — while leaving out those in the "unofficial sector" including small-to-medium sized enterprises or the agricultural sector, where under-employment is widespread.
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Leather warns that this could turn the dividend into a burden. One of the big risks that could emerge from a lack of jobs is social unrest, said Leather, pointing to the Arab Spring — protests and demonstrations across the Middle East triggered in large part by frustration over high levels of unemployment.
The extent to which India reaps the benefits of its demographic gift in the future hinges on whether the country can turn its large working-age population into an employable force. Sign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inbox. Get this delivered to your inbox, and more info about our products and services. Group Subscription. All the benefits of Premium Digital plus: Convenient access for groups of users Integration with third party platforms and CRM systems Usage based pricing and volume discounts for multiple users Subscription management tools and usage reporting SAML-based single sign on SSO Dedicated account and customer success teams.
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‘Demographic dividend will drive India’s future growth’
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